Can we identify what are the causes and effects of internal migrations? The case of Serbia

Abstract

Internal migrations within countries have significant implications for various socio-economic factors and regional development. Understanding the drivers behind internal migrations is crucial for policymakers seeking to address population movements and their consequences. In this paper, we investigate the factors influencing internal migrations in the Republic of Serbia. More specifically, we employ the NOTEARS algorithm, a causal discovery method, to uncover the causal relationships between key factors related to the economy, education, healthcare, tourism, and municipality activity quality. We aim to identify potential causal links between these factors and internal migrations. The results suggest that the number of companies per 1,000 inhabitants influences emigrations in a Belgrade region, while there are no direct or indirect causes of emigrations or immigrations for other regions. This analysis contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics shaping internal migrations in the Republic of Serbia and offers valuable insights for policymakers and researchers alike.

Sandro Radovanović

Assistant Professor at University of Belgrade

My research interests include machine learning, development and design of decision support systems, decision theory, and fairness and justice concepts in algorithmic decision making.