Pathways to Peace: Applying Decision EXpert Methodology in the Balkans

Abstract

This paper discusses the development and application of the Balkan Peace Index, a novel metric designed to measure peacefulness across seven Western Balkan countries. This index diverges from traditional peace indices by integrating both quantitative and qualitative data through a synthesis of Decision EXpert methodology and ethnographic approaches, in line with the ’local turn’ in peace and conflict studies. This method emphasizes local involvement and contextual knowledge, offering a culturally and contextually informed perspective of regional peace. The paper outlines the theoretical underpinnings and practical application of the index, highlighting its aim to provide actionable insights for policymakers and enrich peace research methodology. The index is presented transparently, with all data, models, and results publicly accessible through a dedicated web application, encouraging external validation and broad usage.

Sandro Radovanović

Assistant Professor at University of Belgrade

My research interests include machine learning, development and design of decision support systems, decision theory, and fairness and justice concepts in algorithmic decision making.